FSJG Weekly Review January 13, 2009

by Frank Barbera CMT, Gold Stock Technician. January 13, 2009

General Comments

Welcome to 2009, and hopefully a year that will see a better performance then the debacle visited upon the Junior Mining sector in 2008. In this weeks update, we update long time readers on the price action of the various Financial Sense Mining Indices long with a chart review updating some of the most recent behavior. We realize that it has been some time since our last report and we will be trying hard to not let such a long interval pass between updates. At the end of this report, we have included a table which contains the back data for each of the indices going back to early November which contains all the important data for each FSO series.

Looking back on the first full week of the New Year, we find that Gold and Silver both edged lower with Gold losing $20.18 dollars per ounce and Silver declining by $.25 per ounce. For spot Gold, Friday’s close of $854.80, ended down by 2.30% from last weeks close of $874.98. For spot Silver, the close of $11.28 ended down by 2.16% from the prior weeks close of $11.53. Over the last few weeks, Gold has been range bound between $865 and $828 while Silver has been range bound between $11.33 and $10.08. On the positive side, spot Platinum managed a solid week gaining $46.00 to close at $990.00, up from $944.00 the prior week for a gain of 4.87%. Last year, spot Platinum ended the year down 38.88%.

With the metals under some degree of selling pressure and the US Dollar managing a gain of 1.03 index points on the week (it closed at 82.71, up from 81.86 on 1/2/09) the large cap mining stocks fell during the first week of 2009. For the XAU, the decline total 8.88 index points with the index falling from a 1/2/09 close of 123.43, to a close on Friday of 114.55. For the week, that equated to a percentage decline of 7.19%. In line with that swing was the 7.26% decline seen in the HUI which fell from 298.98 on 1 /2/ 09 to a close of 277.25 on Friday. Remarkably, the sell off in Juniors was rather contained with the Financial Sense Junior Mining Index actually gaining .93 to end at 142.31, up from 141.38 the prior week for a gain of .6%. Among the sub-indices, the Junior Producers fell by .91 cents, while the Junior Development stocks fell by 17.91 index points to end at 306.97, down 5.5%. On the bright side, the long depressed Exploration Index gain 8.13% on the week to end at 70.88, and that helped contain losses in the D&E Index which ended the week down just slightly.

That’s all for now,

Frank

Junior Gold Mining Index

Above: Financial SenseJunior Gold Mining Index - 40 Stocks

Above: FSO Junior Producer Index

Junior Development Inde

Above: Junior Development Index

Junior Exploration Index

Above: FSO Junior Exploration Index

Junior Development and Exploration Index

Above: FSO Junior Development and Exploration Index

Junior Development Index

Above: Relative Strength Ratio of Juniors versus Seniors – still only doing OK in the way of a rebound.

Relative Strength Ratio vs. Spot Gold

Above: Relative Strength Ratio of Juniors versus Spot Gold – again, not much of a spirited rebound thus far in Juniors, primarily the Senior sector and the metals that are doing all the work, not much speculative interest.

Junior Mining Index with Medium Term A/D Ratio

Above: FSO Junior Mining Index with Medium Term A/D Ratio – small caps are also getting overbought, signaling the bounce phase may be nearing an end.

A recap of recent price action:

Contact Information

Frank Barbera, CMT | Editor, Gold Stock Technician
PO Box 48072 Los Angeles, CA 90048 | Email

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