Financial Sense

Shock Events & Gold Breakout

by Jim Willie, CB. Editor, Hat Trick Letter | May 12, 2010

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The events of the last 12 to 18 months have been as shocking as they have been instrumental in reshaping the global financial structures. In fact, the events have pointed out the fracture of the global monetary system and banking systems. The steady stream of events is accelerating in scope and intensity. The fractures are finally being recognized. The key to understanding the continuation of disruptive and chaotic events is the realization that nothing has been fixed, no remedy put in place, no reform agreed upon, no liquidation of impaired bank assets completed, and no work toward a more stable system. Instead, the old system has been subjected to a patchwork of futile efforts and initiatives that speak more of bilking the system, redeeming impaired assets, and channeling funds to those most responsible for the fractures. Instead of seeking solutions, the banking and political leaders revert to what has been their shelf of failed tools, since they know nothing else, stuck in the Keynesian box, painted into the 0% rate corner. The costs are horrific when solutions are not pursued. The beneficiary is gold, since all wayward policy costs money, which must be created, worsening the debasement. Gold rises with new money creation gone amok. $Trillion rescue packages have become the norm, in a cavalcade of debased currencies. Historical highs come for gold and silver, with gold fighting the political battles, but silver riding through the gates with high speed and raised dust. Central banks own no silver, and industry consumes silver.

The system cannot repair itself because those in charge at the helm making decisions caused the fractures and protect their power base. They live and operate within a system that no longer functions effectively. Reform would involve bankruptcy for the elite in charge. Remedy would involve liquidation of the balance sheets for the elite in charge. True crackdown would involves prosecution and jail time for the elite in charge. Changing of the guard would involve lost power for the elite in charge. Independent audits would involve revelations and disclosures of criminal fraud on a widespread basis. So the system lumbers along, broken. Nowhere has the brokenness gone more unaddressed than under-water mortgages for 22% of the American public. True remedy and crackdown would involve a mushroom of criminal allegations from bond fraud, revelation of duplicate usage for mortgage payment revenue streams, lost property titles, and counterfeit fraud. That is a major reason why Fannie Mae was nationalized, to keep the fraud under the roof of the greatest criminal organization on earth, operating under the United States Government, where the corruption, theft, and fraud can be protected by the numerous agencies. The global response has been and will continue to be a flight into gold, finally recognized as a zero risk safe haven. The global decline in trust for government debt is the death knell for the major currencies, the monetary system, and the central bank franchise system. It is also the harbinger for $2000 gold and $50 silver.

Review briefly the scattering of powerful events in just the last 12 to 18 months. History is being made before our eyes. The franchise system of central banks and paper fiat currency has failed before our eyes, but with no specific recognition. The flood of new money creation testifies to both failure and desperation. New debt within the USEconomy no longer produces positive economic activity. The events are so diverse that any competent analyst must conclude that the global financial system has broken in irretrievable, irrevocable, irreversible manner. If the following diverse topics of disruption, breakdown, malfunction, denunciation, incompetence, compromise, corruption, and contagion do not wake people out of their slumber, nothing will. If investors do not take action amidst the plethora of warning signals, they deserve to be gobbled up and ruined. Before long, personal self-defense activity will be declared improper, illegal, and even possibly terrorist in nature. Please pardon the brevity of each topic, but too many exist, and building an argument for each would require at least 2 to 3 pages. These topics of breakdown, failure, corruption, and contagion are covered every month in the Hat Trick Letter. Skim to the end to review the gold market summary, where new highs are being registered in almost every single currency on earth. The topics covered in brevity are the same ones covered in careful treatment for the last 12 to 18 months. The array of topics arranged in sequence serves to highlight the shocking events and the historically unprecedented desperation in response, all of which has led to a powerful gold rally based on respect, integrity, and standalone value.

REJECTION OF PETRO-DOLLAR & REVOLT

Last May 2009, the Saudis with Russians and Chinese at their sides announced the eventual end to payments for crude oil to be honored in USDollars. The concept was endorsed by Japan and Germany, whose counselors from Berlin might be far more integral in reshaping the global landscape than the US-UK aging power merchants are willing to concede. The disrespect shown the USDollar has turned to revolt, seen in G-7 Meetings. In fact, the G-7 has morphed into a country club meeting for former power brokers. The new G-20 Meeting is the forum of substance, where the Chinese, Russians, Indians, and Brazilians can have a voice and no longer sit in the hallways while decisions are made. The USDollar is on the butt end of a Global Paradigm Shift with extreme force. The beleaguered buck will limp along until alternatives in the planning stage are launched. That is soon, really soon, like before 2011 is too far along. Gold will compete well with both the USDollar and any newly launched currency alternative.

NATIONALIZED BLACK HOLES

The absorption of Fannie Mae and American Intl Group into the USGovt conglomerate of bureaucracy, fraud, waste, confusion, protection, syndicate wings, off-shore accounts, and printing press operations was an urgent step. It placed the corrupted mortgage finance structures and credit derivative framework under the USGovt aegis, where the syndicate agencies can provide both proper attention and protection from prosecution. The Black Holes will cost the USGovt a few trillion$, my forecast made in 2007 and 2008. Shifting ownership of securities and putting them under official stewardship has effectively eliminated the potential for lawsuits by investors foreign and domestic. Fannie Mae is the nexus of numerous criminal fraud rings whose total value is north of $3 trillion. It is the vast sewage pit replete with slush funds, where obscure accounts reside never to face scrutiny, used to balance the accounting without prying eyes. Gold will be viewed as the clean alternative to paper, especially the toilet paper mixed in sewage treatment plant vats.

INSOLVENT BANKS

Nowhere is the brokenness more evident than in the insolvent big banks. Not a one is solvent, all vampires in search of tangible assets, willing to trade worthless stock shares for assets. Lending is a thing of the past. Their loan loss reserves have vanished, as reserves are tucked away from the lending circles in the US Federal Reserve. Insolvent banks engage in minimal lending, since approval is inhibited by the lack of working capital. The banks are loaded down by an endless raft of foreclosed properties, kept from the market, not on the market. Speaking of insolvent, the USFed itself is in wretched shape. A mere 5% decline in their mortgage assets translates to a negative balance sheet. A more likely 40% decline in mortgage assets, in closer tie to reality, translates to hundreds of billion$ in negative balance sheet. This agency, this august USFed is supposed to lift the US financial structure from its underwater grave? Methinks not!

PHONY ACCOUNTING STANDARDS ENDORSED

On April 1st of 2009, the Financial Accounting Standards Board endorsed corrupt accounting of impaired assets. Banks were permitted to place any value they wanted, with clumsy laughable minimal justification. Enter the basis of the great US stock rally. What a joke! Shock waves like on May 6th will likely become the norm. Bond shock waves are in vogue. Without proper accounting, valuation exercises in US financial arenas becomes a farce, joke, travesty.

ENDLESS QUANTITATIVE EASING

The QE1 was welcomed. Vast new money printing for the purpose of meeting federal deficits, rescuing big banks, and providing vast slush funds was deemed necessary. The end of QE1 was heralded but a lie. Perhaps it was proclaimed at an end so that QE2 can be launched amidst fresh needs. The QE2 seems to be launched in Europe with a grand US conduit. In March, USFed Chairman Bernanke lied through his teeth to the USCongress about how Quantitative Easing had come to an end, that USTreasurys were not being monetized. In late April, Bernanke admitted his lie to the same US Congressional committee. Remove QE and the entire system grinds to a halt, then collapses under the weight of debt. Claims of QE removal serve as deceptive political clapptrapp, pure diversion from the reality. The QE is as crucial as the right leg. Uncle Sam cannot negotiate the mine field while skipping and hopping on one leg.

REACTIVE CREATION OF USTREASURY BUBBLE

You gotta love the denials that the USTreasury Bond complex is a bubble. Its needs have grown enough to demand a significant slice of the entire global savings. Actually, the global savers have lost their appetite for further USTBond buys. As a bubble, it is fed by accelerating sources of funds, mostly nowadays from printing press creation of money. The near 0% interest rate is a dead end with no reversal, since higher borrowing costs would bring about a cave-in for the USTBond bubble. The USTreasury Bond bubble is the sentinel signal for the gold market to release, find global acceptance as true safe haven, and find proper value over $2000 per ounce. A supposed safe haven can NEVER be a bubble. In fact, as the USGovt adopts one broken child after another like Fannie Mae and AIG, the US$-based obligations extend beyond federal debt to cover mortgage wreckage and credit derivative fires. To call USTreasurys a safe haven is like calling Al Capone a savior, calling Lloyd Blankfein a crusader for God, calling Alan Greenspan the architect of prosperity, or calling Franklin Roosevelt a friend to gold investors.

ACCELERATION OF BANK FAILURES

Banks are falling victim to death experiences at an accelerated rate. The bank failure rate grew in mid-2008. The rate grew again in mid-2009. In 2010, already the rate has accelerated again. Bank failures are picking up speed rapidly. The FDIC insurance fund is deep in the red. The bank fees were levied at 13-fold increases last year. Even advanced bank fees have been exhausted by the FDIC. Soon the FDIC will need more billion$ in funds. A new wrinkle is that commercial mortgages are killing banks, at a time when many assets are revealed as being held on balance sheets at double their true value. See the recent bank failures and consistent over-valued assets in liquidation. The problem is systematic and endemic.

UNENDING MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES

Despite claims of a stabilizing housing market, the mortgage delinquencies and enormous inventory of bank owned homes is not being relieved. Fannie Mae reports still rising mortgage delinquencies. Prime Option ARMs are showing delinquency rates that rival the subprimes. Commercial mortgages are also showing delinquency rates that rival the subprimes. The newest wrinkle is Strategic Defaults, where people just stop paying their mortgages, an active decision, often by people with high RICO credit scores. Many are demanding the banks to produce their legitimate property title. Many are sick & tired of bank welfare, with Wall Street taking the lion's share of aid. Some suspect vast bond fraud. Civil disobedience a la Henry David Thoreau has entered the equation. With each new delinquency comes a default and more inventory. The entire USEconomic growth spurt in the 2002 to 2005 timeframe was founded on a housing bubble that was washed away. No new bubbles can be found of practical usage, only the USTreasury Bond bubble acting like a powerful black hole to inhibit capital formation.

REVELATIONS OF RIGGED METALS MARKET

In the last few weeks, the metals markets are abuzz over the revelations by Andrew Maguire that the London silver market is rigged from JPMorgan trading desks. Price suppression has come from naked shorting, otherwise known as selling silver contracts without collateral, without benefit of metal. The paper Ponzi scheme of the London Bullion Market Assn and the COMEX is slowly being unmasked. The concentrated short positions have no economic justification, and represent over a year of global mine output. The GATA organization is being vindicated, soon to be granted great respect. Without the outsized naked short position in silver, all completely illegal, all totally protected by the USGovt and its obedient regulators, the silver price would be north of $50 per ounce. The same rigged market exists in gold. Without the outsized naked short position in gold, the gold price would be north of $2000 per ounce. That is where both are heading.

PROSECUTIONS OF US TITAN BANKS

The Big Four banks in the United States had better grow accustomed to legal charges and lawsuits. For several years, they sold toxic assets, misrepresented asset sales, have engaged in naked shorting of metals, have sold bogus derivative products, have laundered counterfeit bonds of various types, have paid in collusion for debt ratings, have engaged in insider trading schemes, and much more. My sources tell of powerful Chinese interests and indirect agents putting tremendous pressure on the USGovt to enforce the law and enforce the regulations, which would effectively release clogged markets and force prosecution. They are ultimately USTreasury Bond creditors and Gold investors. They are angry. Watch the prosecutions and civil lawsuits continue like an endless parade. Watch for exposés and sting operations also.

REFUSALS FOR BANKING DISCLOSURE

The common practice of off-balance sheet usage is rampant. Various devices for temporary account ledger items are under fire. Banks place unsold home foreclosure inventory often off the balance sheet. Bigger banks place wrecked mortgage assets off the balance sheet. Loser credit derivatives and other derivatives routinely are placed off the balance sheet. The USTreasury funds its own USTBond purchases from agencies in the Caribbean, again off the balance sheet. The entire Enron operation, from its Harvard hatchery, its Citigroup funding, and its JPMorgan special purpose vehicles, was an off-shore enterprise also. Proper disclosure involves proper valuation. False accounting prevents the disclosure process. The motive is simple. The big banks are insolvent and do not wish to disclose their insolvency. Lending as a result suffers.

DEMANDS FOR USFED AUDIT

Imagine a nation whose central bank is part of a foreign owned syndicate, with full control of the monetary management, full control of channels to their favorite bank entities, full control of destinations for funds. The USFed is a paid consultant for the USCongress which refuses to disclose its gold inventory, refuses to disclose its currency management, refuses to disclose its disbursement of TARP Funds, refuses to disclose its monetization of USTreasurys and USAgency Mortgage Bonds, refuses to disclose its Wall Street fund swaps, and desperately conceals its money laundering for CIA narcotics funds that enter the Wall Street system. Demands for a USFed audit coincided with a May 6th freakish stock plunge, resulting in watered down language for power to audit the USFed itself. The new bill at least is a foot in the door. Let's hope it is size 22 like Shaquille O'Neal.

TRILLION DOLLAR USGOVT DEFICITS

After the 2008 fiscal year USGovt deficit was announced in the $1.5 trillion range, shock was felt. The American public was told of a lower $1.3 trillion estimated deficit for 2009. It also ended up in the $1.5 trillion range. Expect the 2010 deficit to again be at least $1.5 trillion. Federal revenue receipts are still trending down for both individual and corporate tax sources. Another stimulus bill is soon to be entered, unless the nonsensical story of a recovery is actually embraced and believed. Funding of the Fannie Mae and AIG black holes is costly. And never overlook the endless wars and defense (offense) programs. Their budgets are sacred, never debated, and always endorsed without delay. The end result is a continued flood of USTreasury creation, at a time when refunding rollovers are required. Gold competes with this travesty, competes successfully, seen as a carnival sideshow moved to center stage. Record debt issuance occurs each month.

MISSING USTREASURY AUCTION BIDDERS

The details of USTreasury official auctions have become a subject of open debate. Irregularities among direct and indirect bidders has attracted attention, bad attention. Simple calculations reveal how USTBond purchases by known sources account for less than half of USTBonds auctioned off, the difference made up by pure monetization in the typical secretive centers like the Caribbean bank centers. The Treasury Investment Capital (TIC) Reports continue to reveal a decline in most nations for USTreasury holdings, yet even more USTBonds are sent into the market. The monetization is the only answer to explain vast anomalies.

PLUMMETING MONEY VELOCITY

A new phenomenon, documented, explained, even with visual aids, was given in the May Macro Economic Report out last week. The monetary base is accelerating upwards at a mindboggling rate. The broad money supply in usage is actually falling, due to reduced lending and loan approval. The money velocity has fallen dangerously low, like to levels seen in the teeth of vicious recessions. Thus the monetary inflation, Bernanke's reason for being, has not been successful. The relationship between broad money supply and declining labor market is well known, tracked expertly by John Williams and his Shadow Govt Statistics staff. The conclusion is to expect a nasty recession to continue, to reappear, depending on your perspective and level of denial. Money is being thrust into the system, but it is not being put to work, as capital formation is non-existent. Think of a big car burning its engine, revving up wildly, but going very slowly down the road. Blown pistons and gaskets litter the roadway.

ABUSE OF EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS

The Exchange Traded Funds are a system for Wall Street to control prices for key items. The natural gas ETFund has had little bearing on the natural gas price. The silver ETFund (SLV) inventory has diverged from the silver metal price, the lost correlation as testimony to corrupted management. The lazy investors prefer to own an ETFund out of unwillingness to research or manage the asset, preferring to open the door to corrupt management by Wall Street firms, the same ones who corrupted the mortgage bond market, the muni bond market, the oil market, and the entire stock market. The most corrupt of all ETFunds are the Street Tracks SPDR (GLD) gold fund, the Barclays (SLV) silver fund, and the Goldman Sachs (GDX) gold mining fund. Each of these funds serves an important role in the price fixing, price manipulation, and heavy handed leveraged control of price suppression. If investors are loaded with such ETFunds, then someday they will realize a divergence between the share price and the underlying prices, probably some lawsuits for impropriety and malfeasance, and likely forced liquidations without participation in the rallies observed. As Stewart Dougherty put it, "Big Money is going to be way too smart to buy the Exchange Traded Funds that have been pimped to retail investors as a way to sterlize their money and keep it out of the metals market for which it was internded." The solution is to own a gold or silver bullion account. See the Sprott (PHYS) fund which is given a 30% price premium, due to integrity.

POLITICAL REACTION TO FAILURE & COLLECTIVISM

The public disgust and anger is growing fast. The Tea Party movement has gained acceptance and vigor at the grassroots level. Some like Bill Clinton attempt to associate the Tea Party participants with terrorists, which is ludicrous. George Washington, Patrick Henry, Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, James Madison, and especially the outspoken Benjamin Franklin might be maligned if alive today, or at least harassed with tax audits. At least one might sit in a secret prison without criminal charges filed. The USCongress is distrusted more than Wall Street. Bankers are despised and disrespected. The people did not want a national Health Care program, but their desires are secondary. The USGovt had better beware of a blossoming of civil disobedience in reaction. One form is not to make mortgage payments. Another form is to drain investment accounts and to purchase gold & silver, coins or bullion, either way.

DISRESPECT SHOWN TO THE UNITED STATES

International prestige has vanished for the United States. The revolt that started against the USDollar two years ago has branched in multiple directions. US bankers are on the extreme defensive, the former ambassadors to economic export. The narco war and oil war have tarnished the US reputation. The military services fraud has tarnished the US reputation. The abuse of NATO airbases has tarnished the US reputation. The Wall Street toxic bond export on a global scale has tarnished the US reputation. The interference with foreign sovereign debt by Wall Street and US-based hedge funds has tarnished the US reputation. The heavy hand of IMF and World Bank leverage, pressures, and poison pills has tarnished the US reputation. The ratcheting trade war and stream of tariffs and complaints by the USGovt have tarnished the US reputation. The Madoff Ponzi Scheme has tarnished the US reputation. The numerous nationalized companies has tarnished the US reputation. The new prosecutions against Wall Street fraud have tarnished the US reputation. The flood of new USTreasury Bond supply has tarnished the US reputation. The lack of leadership in times of crisis has tarnished the US reputation.

FLASH TRADING EXPOSED

In the last two years, much attention has been given the Flash Trading, also called High Frequency Trading, even the basic name of Computer Program Trading. Estimates that 73% of the New York Stock Exchange trading volume is from program trading. So Wall Street is essentially deeply committed to circle jerk endeavors, or exercises to eat each other' lunch, certainly not producing anything. Paul Volcker accused the financial industry of one good innovation in 20 years, the automatic teller machine. He finds no value in either credit derivatives or computer program trading. In fact, much of the Flash Trading proprietary devices are elaborate insider trading mechanisms that view the order stream and front run. See the Goldman Sachs incident one year ago, when an employee stole the illegal software, but the FBI came to the rescue of GSax and kept the story and device under wraps. The Flash Trading was unleashed on May 6th again. A grand heist ensued, clearly motivated by insider information of a weekend European bank rescue and $1 trillion monetization package. Lack of liquidity is blamed, but so is lack of value. In today's world of high finance, a flash trade computer program device is a different form of pistol used in a holdup, gunning for the sell stops, filling them at absurdly low levels, mugged on the trading platforms. The Dark Pools in OTC trading account for $60 trillion in annual activity, versus a mere $5 trillion in monitored traffic. That translates to more back alleys for mugging than passageways well lit to prevent criminals at work.

SOVEREIGN DEBT REJECTED

Since late November when the Dubai debt went into default, the sovereign debt crisis has been unleashed like a relentless storm. Following Dubai was Greece, the common denominator being the London and West Europe banks. Denials are shallow minded and stupid when analysts claim that sovereign debt risk is fenced from one nation to another. Contagion will be the norm. Much of the Greek Govt debt is held by Swiss, London, and French banks. So a rescue of Greece is tantamount to a rescue of these big exposed banks. The rash of sovereign debts facing default, or pressure toward default, testifies to the failure of the monetary system. The usage of newly hatched money to fix problems from unbacked untethered unsecured money is lunacy. Eventually, a condition marred by debt constipation results. Uncle Sam needs to visit the toilet for relief but cannot, as his bowels are blocked by debt without benefit of healthy liquidity. His intestines are clogged with financial engineered vehicles, basic fur balls. The next nations to face the sovereign debt hammer of scrutiny and market retaliation are Italy, Spain, France, and then England. The fireworks are nowhere finished. With each new episode, the Gold price will rise further.

FAILURE OF CENTRAL BANK FRANCHISES

The sovereign debt crisis is actually a symptom of the failed central bank franchise system. The central bank had better hurry to produce new global reserve currencies backed and fortified by gold, also possibly by crude oil, or else the fires in the government debt will continue to burn. The end result will be ruined currencies, broken national banking systems, national budgets in tatters beyond remedy, economies ground to a halt, and eventually civil strife. We are witnessing the end convulsions of the fiat paper monetary system. The central banks are powerless to stop the crisis. The $1 trillion European bank bailout plan gave lift to the Euro currency for less than 24 hours. The USDollar is viewed as likewise wrecked and undermined as the Euro. In my view, the simple perspective is that their near 0% interest rates are like a minimal pulse on the banking system, a depleted body lying in the Intensive Care ward. The currencies are all dying. Gold will rise until given proper recognition, then it will rise even more.

GOLD SEEN AS ZERO RISK REFUGE

No charts are necessary. A thousand words might suffice, rather than six charts showing Gold breaking out to new highs across the world. Some major points scream to be told. Here is a list:

Copyright © 2010 Jim Willie, CB
Editorial Archive

Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a Ph.D. in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials.

Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "HAT TRICK LETTER" Use the below link to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of several smallcap companies positioned to rise like a cantilever during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by heretical central bankers and charlatan economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy. A tad of relevant geopolitics is covered as well. Articles in this series are promotional, an unabashed gesture to induce readers to subscribe.

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