Stephan Bogner

"WEEKLY CHART THOUGHTS"
April 29, 2004

"PriceAction Makes Market Commentary!"

�last read from Bill Murphy at www.LeMetropoleCafe.com�

"Inbattles of opinions one shall be prudent the most,
when the enemies are approaching and [want to] determineus."[1]

"Inthe long-term, nothing and nobody
is stronger than the market"[2]

The above chart shows gold trying to take the middle (blue)trendline as support.

Onecan look at the chart this way as well. Notice how the price was sloping from October 1999 until April 2001(green line). This is exactly the same slope in reverse, which the goldmarket is using since the beginning of the upswing.

Theabove chart is exactly the same as the one before. Theblue line represents when you should have held yourpositions. Every time gold was hitting the upper greenline, it corrected sharply down towards the lowest greentrendline. Whenever the lower line was touched, one shouldhave bought � no matter what the price was doing lateron.

Everytime gold was forced to correct to the downside (redlines), the correction found support at crucial pricemarks: $250, $275, $300. $325, $390 now, and later $430.

The above lines are all trendlines. Take a look at the light graylines, which are connecting the high points with the lowpoints. And now take a look at the gray lines in the nextchart.

Thefirst red triangle (October 1999-April 2001) was deciding whether gold was to start a bull market. This period wascrucial because it was shaking off and cleaning out major bears and building up a bottom at $250.

The 3 triangles from April 2001 on have something in common:their upper legs all go back to the price marked inOctober 1999 (green circle). The lower legs all go back tothe yellow leg. (Idid not draw them fully back to the yellow circle, because there would be too many confusing lines � but go aheadand check for yourself.)

So,triangles are nothing else than trendlines. And trendlinesare nothing else than resistance and support.

The Euro-Index finally pulled back all the way to its apex andis now positioned to be ready for a thrust to the upside(or downside).

"Itsnot the size of the wave � it’s the motion of the ocean!" � and the breaks are getting bigger!

[1]Translated from German into English by SB: Ludwig B�rne: "Das Staatspapier des Herzens � Fragmente und Aphorismen" (BundVerlag, K�ln, 1988), S. 15.

[2]Translated from German into English by SB: Prof. Dr. H. J. Bocker: "Gold Dossier"(Polar Film & Medien, Gescher, 2000, www.polarfilm.de).

Feel free to send me your comments and how you feel about allthe triangles.

HAPPY TRADING, GO GOLD & GATA!

© 2004 Stephan Bogner
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Chart courtesy: www.stockcharts.com