Stephan Bogner

"WEEKLY CHART THOUGHTS"
April 8, 2004
Update on April 7th

Yesterday,both gold and silver were breaking out of
triangular price formations at approximately 10:30am NY.

Gold� Wednesday 7th April 2004

Silver� Wednesday 7th April 2004

Atthe same time, the USD Index was trading at the very end
of a triangle that was building up for 3 days.

Becausethe USD was still holding slightly at its apex, but goldand silver were already exploding out of their respectivetriangles, the metals were anticipatingthat the USD would break to the downside. And they wereright:

Gold� Wednesday 7th April 2004

Silver� Wednesday 7th April 2004

Goldwas breaking and thrusting out of its triangle from $419to $423 � at which resistance zone it was building upanother triangular consolidation formation for about 66minutes. At 12:05pm gold was rising in a sharp thrustabove $423, but suddenly the price collapsed beneath $423and found support at $422. Again, the $6-Rule was notbeing breached thanks to gold's second triangle which wasnot able to thrust. It was not a fake-breakout, becausethe price was not crashing beneath the apex at $422.Similar phenomenon occurred in the silver market: Thesecond triangle began to thrust sharply after gold did thefirst move. Silver tried to pass the resistance at $8.24,but as gold surprisingly went down, silver as well startedto trade beneath its respective resistance zone. At13:00pm, gold tried to rise to $423 again after havingfound support at $422. Similar price behavior for silver,but as gold's final try was not successful, it took itssupport at $422 and waited for the end of the NY-tradingsession. Same should have happened to the price of silver:but after the final attempt to rise at 13:00pm, silver didNOT take $8.20 as support but fell further to $8.16showing that silver was not only following gold'smovements closely, but was under a more intense sellingpressure.

US-Dollar-Index� Thursday 8th April 2004

Thehead and shoulder formation of the USD-Index broke down.First support was found at 88.1 from which the Dollarbegan rising fast to 88.8 � slightly above the currentneckline of the H-S-formation. This behavior is notuncommon and labeled as "a classical pullback".The consolidation period above the neckline is currentlytaking the shape of a triangle � to decide whether thisneckline shall be taken as support again to try overcomeresistances at 89.4. If failing, the loss in the USD willaccelerate.

Feelfree to send me your comments and how you feel about allthe triangles.

HAPPYTRADING, GO GOLD & GATA!

© 2004 Stephan Bogner
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Chart courtesy: www.stockcharts.com