Stephan
Bogner
Weekly
Chart Thoughts
February
27, 2004
"A Review of Thrust"
About Triangular Chart Patterns
In triangular times, a price fluctuates within the boundaries of the triangles' legs. These formations consist ideally of 5 segments/waves. At about � in front of the apex, the price is trespassing the boundaries of the triangle and starts trending in a certain direction. The triangle is completing with an explosive thrust � either to the upside or downside. According to general cycles theory, the length of the thrust ranges at least between 75 and 125% of the first wave. Please see the article "2 Opinions � 1 Triangle" for more information.
~ Welcome To The Thrust ~
- Formore than 20 years, the goldprice has been caught in atriangle. In the mid-1990s, the goldprice managed to cutacross the upper triangular leg and broke out at $400.Instead of thrusting to the upside right away, thegoldprice used a pullback to its apex at $250 (rememberthat every second triangle is using a pullback beforethrusting). Remarkable is the timing of the "WashingtonAgreement on Gold", which event coincidesperfectly with golds` apex. Since then, the goldprice hasalways been marking higher lows and is thrusting to theupside.
- TheCommodities-Index CRB has been moving within triangularboundaries since 1993.The5th wavesucceeded to break the upper leg and the CRB-Index isthrusting ever since.
- Beginningin 1998, the goldprice was outperforming the silverpricefor about 6 years, because silver was in adownward-sloping triangle relative to gold. Having reachedits apex at the very end of 2003, this chart pattern iscompleting with an explosive thrust at the moment: thesilverprice is rising faster than the goldprice.
~ About To Thrust ~
- Approximatelyevery 10 months the USD-Index has been marking lows (seevertical yellow lines). Since June 2003, the USD-Index ismoving within a triangle. Fake-breakouts are not uncommonin heavily traded markets.
- TheGoldprice in Euro has been in a dominating triangle sincethe end of 2001. A breakout to the upside could indicate (among other possible scenarios) that thegoldprice is rising faster than Euro�
- Thegoldprice in Rand has been trapped in a triangle since theend of 2001. A breakout to the upside could indicate(among other possible scenarios) that the goldprice isrising faster than the Rand�
~ Soon to Thrust ~
- Majorstockmarket indexes are moving within two tighter slopingtrendlines since 1995. Wave 4 of 5 is in the process ofbeing made. After that, wave 5 will bring clarificationwhether the triangle will be completed with a thrust tothe up- or downside.
©
2004 Stephan Bogner
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Chart courtesy: www.stockcharts.com and www.sharelynx.com
