Technical Tight Rope

The Bull is Gasping, Long Live the Bull

by Christopher M. Quigley, B.Sc., M.M.I.I., M.A., WealthBuilder.ie. November 12, 2007

The fact that the Dow Industrials has sliced through the 100 and 200 day moving averages is worrisome for traders and investors alike. This, coupled with the fact that the August low of 4672 on the transports has been breached, means that if the Industrials do not obtain confident support at the 12845 level, there is the distinct possibility of major technical carnage in the very near future.

In addition, on the NASDAQ front, momentum bellwethers RIMM, AAPL and GOOG still have not found meaningful support and this weakness may significantly pull the technology index down further. All told in the immediate short term traders should note that the risk reward ratio is clouded and inclined towards the bears. Until clarity resumes cash should be the currency of the empowered.

The good news is that it is highly likely the technical conundrum should play itself out in the next week or so and either way there is an increasing probability one can achieve stellar returns this coming quarter. Investors should be focused on the magnitude of what is currently being played out daily before their eyes. Rarely is it this clear. Either the current weakness will be seen as a prime buying event or the bull market that began in 2003 will be dead and aggressive shorting will be in order. The current gasps from the wounded animal are being noted by all and the jury is still out on whether the drama indicates a pause for breath or the fatal admonitions of energy quenched. That question is just about to be answered. The implications for American business, profound.

Contact Information

Christopher M. Quigley, B.Sc., M.M.I.I., M.A. | Wealth Builder | Dublin, Ireland | Email