A Tale in Three E-Mails

by Rob Kirby, KirbyAnalytics.com. December 6, 2006

The following is a series of three e-mails that were private correspondence with GATA Chairman Bill Murphy - proprietor of Lemetropolecafe.com over the past few days:

Bill;

I've been thinking the concept of "gold quality swaps" over and over again in my mind. At first, my belief was that the U.S. had only categorically done "gold quality swaps" with the Bank of England - only because the Bank of England is the only Central Bank that officially acknowledges they have such trades on their books.

That they do is now matter of historical fact.

But now, my thinking has changed.

I now believe that gold quality swaps were, perhaps also, conducted with the Bundesbank around the year 2000.

I now feel that "Quality Gold Swaps" were "coined" [pun intended] or invented for a darker reason.

My thinking is now that fine "deliverable" gold from the Bundesbank was perhaps "swapped" for "DEEP GOLD".

After all, DEEP GOLD is only gold of a different "fineness" - isn't it?

Quality Gold Swaps by the U.S. with Central Banks around the world would - utilizing DEEP GOLD [gold in the ground] - would go a long way - perhaps a better explanation - to explaining why the gold price suppression has been able to be extended for such a long period of time.

It would also provide a "fuller explanation" as to why the Central Banks are so opaque when it comes to double-counting "swapped gold" visa vie "gold in the vault".

A work in progress,

Bill;

You see, here is a list of the currently acceptable "good delivery" smelters of bars of gold where the LBMA is concerned:
http://www.lbma.org.uk/good_delivery_gold.html#usa

Current Good Delivery Smelters of Gold According to the LBMA:

USA	Johnson Matthey Inc	Salt Lake City, UT	22.5.89	Johnson Matthey with JM and crossed hammers in diamond, and JMI Assay Office in oval round SLC
	Metalor USA Refining Corporation	No. Attleboro , MA	19.7.91	METALOR® and MUS assayer's mark including year

But take a look at the former good delivery smelters from the U.S.A.:

USA	ASARCO Incorporated	Amarillo, Texas	22.6.05	ASARCO Gold Amarillo Texas in square
	ASARCO Incorporated	Baltimore, Md Perth Amboy, NJ		ASARCO Gold Baltimore Maryland or ASARCO Gold Perth Amboy New Jersey
	Engelhard-CLAL USA	Carteret, N.J.	10.12.97	Engelhard-CLAL New York
	Engelhard Corporation	Carteret, NJ
	Engelhard Corporation	Anaheim, Ca		Engelhard logo and W in octagon
	Handy & Harman Refining Group Inc	Attleboro, Mass	03.04.01	Handy & Harman Refining Group with 'HH' in square
	Homestake Mining Company	Lead, SD	03.10.00	Homestake Mining Company in circle round HMC logo
	United States Metals Refining Co. Subsidiary of Amax Inc	Carteret, NJ		DRW Reg US Pat Off
	United States Assay Offices & Mints	New York San Francisco Denver	08.09.97	US Assay Office New York or Mint of The United States at San Francisco, or US Mint San Francisco, or US Mint Denver

Now, ask yourself why "good delivery bar" smelters of gold in the U.S.A. are dropping like flies since the late 90's to the turn of the millennium in the wake of domestic U.S. Gold production [as a percentage of world production] and absolute number of ounces per year are ramping up?

World production is 49.3Moz, up 25% from 1980.

South Africa is flat at 21.6Moz.

Canada, the US, and Australia produce 2.8, 2.4, and 1.9Moz, respectively.

Brazil produces 2.3Moz.

China produces 2Moz and releases a gold bullion coin - the Panda in 1982.

Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, and Columbia each produce over 1Moz.

Technology (heap leaching) has changed mining, forever.

The U.S.S.R is breaking up, so the United States with 9.5Moz production will soon become the world's #2 producer.

Australia produces 7.8Moz.

Canada produces 5.4Moz, peaks at 5.7Moz in 1991, then drifts down to current levels of 5Moz/yr.

World production hits 72.3Moz, but South Africa produces only 16.8Moz.

The United States produces over 10Moz, followed by Australia at 8.2Moz (will produce over 10Moz in 1997)

Chile, Ghana, Peru, and Indonesia each produce about 2.0Moz, versus about .5Moz in 1990.

World production hits 2573mt (82.6Moz), but South Africa produces only 428mt (13.8Moz)

Production in the United States, Australia, Canada dips slightly, with China up.

Other significant producers: Chile, Indonesia, Peru, Russia, and Uzbekistan

The trend toward worldwide industry diversification continues, with the top 5 countries now accounting for just over 50% of world production.

Republic of South Africa: 296mt
Australia: 263mt
United States: 262mt
China: 224mt
Russia: 180.5mt
Peru: 207mt
Indonesia: 167mt

118.5mt

Other: 800mt

TOTAL: 2518mt

I would offer that all of the Coin Melt has already been reprocessed. Smelters are shutting down. The LBMA confirms this. Swaps are now being conducted for DEEP GOLD still in the ground.

US ability to process gold bullion is dropping - this is a fact.

Bill;

The notion that the U.S. has no more gold [all reprocessed and swapped / leased or sold] and is now conducting swaps for "DEEP GOLD" is also highly consistent with - or at least provides a credible reason for - both Rothschild and AIG exiting the gold market in April/May 04 and June 04 respectively. They knew the basis of the physical game was "over".

This obscure news item [originally published in the N.Y. Post by Jennifer Anderson] in late Jan. 04 would probably have hastened the exit from the metals markets of the players named above:

DA investigating Nymex executive - Manhattan, New York, district attorney's office, Stuart Smith - Melting Pot - Brief Article – Feb. 2, 2004

A top executive at the New York Mercantile Exchange is being investigated by the Manhattan district attorney. Sources close to the exchange said that Stuart Smith, senior vice president of operations at the exchange, was served with a search warrant by the district attorney's office last week. Details of the investigation have not been disclosed, but a Nymex spokeswoman said it was unrelated to any of the exchange's markets. She declined to comment further other than to say that charges had not been brought. A spokeswoman for the Manhattan district attorney's office also declined comment.

You see, the offices of the Senior Vice President of Operations - NYMEX – is exactly where you would go to find the records [serial number and smelter of origin] for EVERY GOLD BAR ever PHYSICALLY settled on the exchange. They are required to keep these records. These precise records would show the lineage of all the physical gold settled on the exchange and hence "prove" that the amount of gold in question could not have possibly come from the U.S. mining operations � because the amounts in question coming from U.S. smelters would undoubtedly be vastly bigger than domestic mine production.

We never have found out what happened to poor ole Stuart Smith � after his offices were "raided" � he took administrative leave from the NYMEX and he has never been heard from since. Amazingly [or perhaps not], there has also been ZERO follow up on in the media on the original story as well as ZERO developments stemming from D.A. Morgenthau's office who executed the search warrant.

There is now absolutely no doubt in my mind that these events are connected.

And These Are The Implications if Deep Gold Has Actually Been Swapped:

If this un-mined gold has been used as collateral for the swaps of good delivery bars with other central banks, and then sold it to cap the gold price; then as a corollary of this - the un-mined gold is the property of the Treasury Dept. even though Barrick Gold and others are presently mining the deposits.

If my supposition is correct, gold mines in the United States will be expropriated should the USD implode. If gold mines are expropriated in the US, the so-called center of free market philosophy, what chance have gold share owners elsewhere in the world of "cashing in" on the gold price explosion?

All the mines will be nationalized or sur-taxed to death.

This is why you all need to "own" physical gold and silver bars and / or coins.

Contact Information

Rob Kirby | Kirby Analytics | Toronto, Ontario, Canada | E-mail