MARKET WATCH FOR MAY 2008
The Future is in Futures
by Pearce Financial, LLC
May 17, 2008

Based on trading activity and reports, the following markets are setting up for potential trading opportunities.

Stock Indices - The June S&P 500 500 finds near term resistance at last week's high of 1426.90. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1460.00 (as measured between last year's all-time high of 1586.50 and this year's current monthly low of 1255.30). After that the market could be on the way to the psychological 1500 mark. Technical support is located at last week's low of 1379.00 (the S&P 500 has only broken a previous week's low once in the last four weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since late March). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1319.50 (as measured between the contract low of 1253.10 and last week's high of 1426.90) followed closely by the April low of 1315.80. If the market does not stabilize here it could tag the double bottom on the weekly chart between the March low of 1258.00 and the February low of 1255.30. Open Interest is sitting flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the S&P 500 is overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, the S&P 500 should move sideways in May. Commercials are holding the same size net long position that they have had since February. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the same size net short position that they have had since then. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since the end of March.

The June NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance between last week's high of 2008.25 and the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 2031.90 (as measured between last year's high of 2256.25 and this year's current monthly low of 1669.00). Further resistance is at the weekly December reaction high of 2165.00. Near term support is at last week's low of 1917.00 (the NASDAQ 100 has only broken a previous week's low once in the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since late March). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1801.50 (as measured between the contract low of 1674.00 and last week's high of 2008.25). Further support is at this year's current weekly low of 1669.00 (all-sessions). Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is overbought on the daily chart. The NASDAQ 100 should head lower in May. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position since early December. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since mid-January. Small traders are holding the largest net short position since early December.

Interest rates - June T-bonds find near term support clustered near the April low of 115-04.5, the weekly February low of 115-03, the weekly December 2006 reaction high of 114-29 (old resistance), and the weekly September reaction high of 114-23 (old resistance). If T-bonds do not stabilize here they could plunge to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111-26 (as measured between the 2007 low of 104-31 and this year's current weekly high of 122-28). Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 118-24.5 (as measured between the daily March high of 121-00.5 and the daily April low of 115-04.5). Further resistance is located between the daily contract high of 121-24 (all-sessions) and the weekly January high of 122-28 (all-sessions). A breakout above these highs could allow bonds to challenge the 2003 all-time high of 124-10. Open Interest is at a one month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bonds are nearing oversold on the daily chart. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to move sideways in the first half of May and then trade higher for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position in seven months. Large traders are holding their biggest net long position since mid-October. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in ten months.

June T-Notes spent the last two weeks trading either side of the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement. A break below the April low of 114-20 could send the market down to the weekly December reaction low of 111-16 in confluence with the weekly September reaction high of 111-13.5 (old resistance). Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-28 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of 104-01 and the current weekly all-time high of 121-25). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 116-11.5 (T-notes have only broken a previous week's high once in the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 117-31 (as measured between the contract high of 120-01 and the April low of 114-20). Further resistance is at the current contract high of 120-01 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs should take T-notes up to the current all-time high of 121-25 (all-sessions) on the weekly chart. Open Interest is at the lowest level since July of 2006. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes are oversold on the daily chart. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to drop in the first week of May and then rally for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding their biggest net long position since October of 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their largest net short position since then. Small traders are holding their largest net short position in months.

Currencies - The US Dollar Index finds near term resistance at last week's high of 73.90 and the weekly 18-bar Moving Average (the US dollar index has only close above the weekly 18-bar Moving Average once in the last eleven months). This resistance area is closely followed by the daily April spike high of 74.50 in confluence with last year's low of 74.50 (old support). Further resistance is found between this year's current weekly high of 77.50 (all-sessions) and the weekly December reaction high of 77.86. If the greenback can take out this resistance area it could explode to the psychological 80-cent mark, the 1995 low of 80.14, and the 2004 low of 80.48. Since 1980, the first few weeks of every election year (1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004) has registered a very important low. Sometimes it was the low for the next several months and sometimes it was the low for the next few years! Going long the US dollar index after a breakout above the January high in the election years would have kicked off some very nice trades indeed. Therefore, a breakout to new highs for the year should be a very important event for currency traders. Near term support is found between the daily April low of 71. 05 and the current all-time low of 70.805 on the weekly chart. If the greenback breaks down to new lows again it may erode to the psychological 70-cent level. Open Interest is at a four month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the greenback is oversold on the monthly chart. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move marginally higher in May. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position since the beginning of the year. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since mid-January. Small traders are holding the largest net long position since November of 2005.

The Canadian Dollar has been stuck in a trading range for several weeks. Technical support is clustered between the daily January low of .9630 (all-sessions), the daily March low of .9680 (all-sessions), and the daily April low of .9669 (all-sessions). A clean break below this area should take the market down to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .9426 (as measured between the weekly 2007 low of .8427 and the weekly 2007 high of 1.1043). If the "looney" does not stabilize here it could be headed to the psychological 90-cent area or the 1991 high of .8906 (old resistance). Near term resistance is at the daily April high of 1.0004 (all-sessions). If the "looney" breaks parity with the US dollar it could be headed back up to the daily February high of 1.0275 (all-sessions). A breakout above it could allow the market to tag the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.0453 (as measured between the contract high of 1.0962 and the daily January low of .9630). Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-March. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar should trade sideways for most of May with one good dip toward the end of the month. Commercial interests are holding their smallest net short position in several months. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position in several months. Small traders are holding a moderate size net long position.

The Australian Dollar finds near term resistance at the weekly double top between the February high of .9481 (all-sessions) and the April high of .9482 (all-sessions). A breakout to new highs could launch the Aussie on a warpath toward the psychological one-dollar mark. Near term support is at last week's low of .9224 (the Aussie has only broken a previous week's low once in the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8856 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of .8469 and the current all-time high of .9482), the weekly March reaction low of .8852 (all-sessions), and the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8788 (as measured between the weekly August spike low of .7665 and the current all-time high of .9482). If the Aussie does not establish support in this area it may drop "down under" to the January spike low of .8469 (all-sessions). Open Interest has been at roughly the same level for the last several months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Aussie is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to decline in May. Commercials are holding the largest net short position since July. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since then. Small traders continue to hold the small net long position that they have had for several months.

The British Pound seems to be stuck in a trading range. Near term support is at the daily April low of 1.9507 (all-sessions). Further support is at the double bottom between the daily January low of 1.9210 (all-sessions) and the daily February low of 1.9209 (all-sessions) followed by last year's weekly low of 1.9183 (all-sessions). If sterling does not stabilize in this area it may decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8609 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.7046 and last year's weekly high of 2.1138). Near term resistance is at the intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.9962 (as measured between the daily March high of 2.0244 and the daily April low of 1.9507) in confluence with the daily April high of 1.9966 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the daily March high of 2.0244 (all-sessions). A breakout above this high could send the market up to the weekly March high of 2.0395 (all-sessions) in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 2.0428 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 2.1138 and the January low of 1.9280). Open Interest is at the highest level since December. The pound has a seasonal tendency to move slightly lower in May. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since November of 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since December of 2005. Small traders are holding the largest net short position on record.

The Swiss Franc seems to be stuck in a trading range. Near term support is at the daily April low of 1.9507 (all-sessions). Further support is at the double bottom between the daily January low of 1.9210 (all-sessions) and the daily February low of 1.9209 (all-sessions) followed by last year's weekly low of 1.9183 (all-sessions). If sterling does not stabilize in this area it may decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8609 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.7046 and last year's weekly high of 2.1138). Near term resistance is at the intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.9962 (as measured between the daily March high of 2.0244 and the daily April low of 1.9507) in confluence with the daily April high of 1.9966 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the daily March high of 2.0244 (all-sessions). A breakout above this high could send the market up to the weekly March high of 2.0395 (all-sessions) in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 2.0428 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 2.1138 and the January low of 1.9280). Open Interest is at the highest level since December. The pound has a seasonal tendency to move slightly lower in May. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since November of 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since December of 2005. Small traders are holding the largest net short position on record.

The Euro Currency finds near term support at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.5350 (as measured between the weekly December reaction low of 1.4323 and the current all-time weekly high of 1.5985) in confluence with last week's low of 1.5329 (all-sessions). Further support is at last year's weekly high of 1.4977 (old resistance) and the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.4958 (as measured between the weekly December reaction low of 1.4323 and the current all-time weekly high of 1.5985). If the decline does not end here the Euro could hit this year's current low of 1.4355 (all-sessions) in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.4333 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.1661 and this year's current all-time weekly high of 1.5985). Near term resistance is at the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.5734 (as measured between the contract high of 1.5985 and the last week's low of 1.5329). Further resistance is at the current all-time high of 1.5985 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-March. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is overbought on the monthly chart. Seasonally, the Euro should trade sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since July of 2005. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since December of 2005. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since November of 2005.

The Japanese Yen finds near term support at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .009540 (as measured between last year's low of .008087 and this year's current weekly high of .010438) in confluence with last week's low of .009484 (all-sessions). Further support is at the psychological .009000 area in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008985 (as measured between last year's low of .008087 and this year's current weekly high of .010438). Near term resistance is at last week's high of .009718 (the yen has made lower weekly highs for six consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly a month). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the yen up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .010108 (as measured between the contract high of .010493 and last week's low of .009484). If the market can clear this hurdle it could allow for a run to the current contract high of 1.0493 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the lowest level since September. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is oversold on the daily chart. The yen has a seasonal tendency to move lower in May. Commercial interests are still holding a substantial large net short position. Large traders are holding a near-record size net long position. Small traders are holding a small net long position.

Metals - Gold finds near term support between an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $851.00 (as measured between the summer of 2006 weekly correction low of $555.00 and the current all-time weekly high of $1,033.90), the mid-January weekly reaction low of $849.50 (all-sessions), the weekly November high of $848.00 (old resistance), and last week's low of $846.40 (all-sessions). Further support is at the psychological $800 mark. If gold does not stabilize here it could plummet the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $758 (gold has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since July of 2001), an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $737.90 (as measured between the summer of 2006 weekly correction low of $555.00 and the current all-time weekly high of $1,033.90), and the 2006 high of $732.00 (old resistance). Near term resistance is at the daily April high of $956.20 (all-sessions) followed by the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $965.20 (as measured between the current contract high of $1,038.60 and the last week's low of $846.40). A breakout above this retracement could allow the market to challenge the current contract high of $1,038.60 (all-sessions). Open Interest has been flat for the last month. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gold is now oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that gold should move sideways thru most of May and decline at the end of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since mid-September. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since August.

Silver silver finds near term support at last week's low of $16.055 (all-sessions). A weak close below sixteen dollars could cause a decline to the 2006 weekly high of $14.97 (old resistance), an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $14.925 (as measured between last year's weekly low of $11.06 and this year's current weekly high of $21.185), and this year's current weekly low of $14.91 (all-sessions). Further support is slightly lower at the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $14.60 (silver has only closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average on two different occasions since mid-2003) and the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $14.625 (as measured between the 2001 low of $4.015 and this year's current weekly high of $21.185). Further support is at last year's correction low of $11.06 (all-sessions). Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $18.135 (as measured between the current contract high of $21.50 and last week's low of $16.055). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $19.42 (as measured between the current contract high of $21.50 and last week's low of $16.055). If silver can punch thru this retracement it could go on up to test the current contract high of $21.50 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the lowest level since October. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, silver should move sideways in the first half of May and then decline in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since New Year's. Large traders (hedge funds) are still holding a modestly large net long position. Small traders remain neutral on silver.

Copper finds near term support at last week's low of 366.75 (all-sessions). Further support is at the daily March reaction low of 345.85 (all-sessions) followed by the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 340.75 (as measured between the contract low of 288.00 and the new contract high of 426.05). Further support is at this year's current monthly low of 301.20 (all-sessions). Near term resistance is at the new contract high of 426.05 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at a two year high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. Copper has a seasonal tendency to establish a major seasonal high in early May and then decline sharply for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since mid-February. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net short position since then. Small traders are holding a small net short position.

Energies - Crude Oil finds near term resistance at last week's new all-time high of $120.36 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the psychological $125 mark. Near term support is at last week's low of $110.30 (June crude oil has only broken a previous week's low once in the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the monthly April low of $99.55 (crude oil has only broken a previous month's low once in the last eight months) in confluence with a major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $98.48 (as measured between this year's current low of $84.96 and last week's new all-time high of $120.36). If crude oil slips below this support area it could decline to the current major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $78.34 (as measured between the 1998 "bankrupting" low of $10.35 and last week's new all-time high of $120.36) in confluence with the 2006 weekly high of $78.40 (old resistance). Open Interest is at low levels. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is still near overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should move slightly higher for the first half of May and then sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since February. Large traders are still holding a moderate net long position. Small traders are holding their largest net short position since September.

May RBOB finds near term resistance at the current contract high of 307.35 (all-sessions). A strong close above these highs could allow the market to gun for the psychological 325 level. Near term support is at last week's low of 281.95 (June RBOB has only broken a previous week's low once in the last four weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 265.85 (as measured between this year's current low of 240.20 and the current contract high of 307.35). Further support is at this year's current weekly low of 221.83 (all-sessions). Open Interest pulled back slightly from the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that RBOB gas is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, gasoline should trade sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding a record-size net short position. Large traders are holding a record-size net long position. Small traders are holding a large net long position.

Natural Gas finds near term resistance at the contract high of 11.465 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 13.168 (all-sessions). After that there may be no technical resistance until the 2005 all-time high of 15.650 (all-sessions). Near term support is at last week's low of 10.480 (June natural gas has only broken a previous week's low once in the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could pull natural gas back to the intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.844 (as measured between the daily March spike low of 8.842 and the current contract high of 11.465) and the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 9.843 (as measured between the contract low of 7.210 and the current contract high of 11.465). Further support is at the daily March spike low of 8.842 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the lowest level since the beginning of the year. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position in several months. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since winter. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since the Spring of 2006.

Meats - Live Cattle finds near term support between last week's low of 91.40 and the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 91.12 (as measured between the contract low of 86.65 and the daily April high of 93.90). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 89.42 (as measured between the contract low of 86.65 and the daily April high of 93.90). If cattle breaks this retracement it may decline to the contract low of 86.65. Further support is at last year's weekly low of 85.05 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.70 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of 73.45 and this year's weekly high of 102.92). Near term resistance is located between the daily April high of 93.90 and the weekly March high of 94.10. A breakout above these highs could send cattle running to this year's current high of 96.05 on the daily chart in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 96.10 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 102.92 and last year's weekly low of 85.05). If the rally does not end here June cattle may challenge the psychological one-dollar mark. Open Interest is at a thirteen month high. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should trade sideways in the first half of May and then decline in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since January of 2006. Large traders are holding a record-size net long position. Small traders are holding a record-size net short position.

Feeders finds near term support at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106.27 (as measured between the contract low of 103.25 and the daily April high of 111.15). Further support is at the contract low of 103.25. If August feeders hit a new contract low the market could fall to the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 100.70 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 96.15 and this year's current weekly high of 108.10). Near term resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.77 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 119.80 and this year's current weekly low of 96.15) followed closely by the daily April high of 111.15. A strong close above this price zone could send August feeders up to the daily February high of 114.20. If this high is exceeded the market could be headed for major monthly resistance clustered between the 2005, 2006, and 2007 highs of 119.75, 119.35, and 119.80. Open Interest is at the lowest level since Christmas. Seasonally, feeders should trade slightly higher in May. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since August. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since November. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since December.

Lean Hogs find near term support between last week's low of 70.80 and the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 70.25 (as measured between the contract low of 66.02 and the daily April high of 77.10). Further support is located between the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 66.42 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 50.65 and this year's current weekly high of 76.20) and the contract low of 66.02. A break to new contract lows again could slam June hogs to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 60.40 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 50.65 and this year's current weekly high of 76.20). Near term resistance is at the daily April high of 77.10. June hogs find further resistance between the contract high of 81.10 and last year's weekly high of 82.70. A breakout above this price zone could send hogs to the 1996 high of 90.17. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to rally for the first half of May and then decline sharply in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position in eleven months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since December. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since June.

Grains - Soybeans find near term support between last week's low of $12.44 (all-sessions) and the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $12.33 – (as measured between the daily April spike low of $11.21 – and the daily April high of $14.15). Further support is located at the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $11.24 – (as measured between the 1999 low of $4.01 – and the all-time weekly high of $15.71) in confluence with the daily April low of $11.21 – (all-sessions). If beans slip below this support area look for a collapse to the 1997 high of $9.03 – (old resistance) of even the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $8.48 – (as measured between the 1999 low of $4.01 – and the all-time weekly high of $15.71). Near term resistance is found at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $14.14 – (as measured between the contract high of $15.96 and the April spike low of $11.21 ) in confluence with the daily April high of $14.15 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the psychological fifteen-dollar mark. If the rally does not stall out here May beans could challenge the current contract high of $15.96 (all-sessions). A breakout to new all-time highs would allow beans to keep gunning for psychological targets such as $17.00, $18.00, $19.00, etc. Open Interest is at a one year low. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should move sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since September. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding a neutral position.

Soy Meal finds near term support at last week's low of $322.20 (all-sessions). A break below it could take the market down to bigger technical support clustered between the monthly April low of $298.50 (all-sessions), the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $297.90 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of $155.80 and this year's current high of $385.70), and the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $295.70 (as measured between the August low of $232.50 and the contract high of $398.00). If meal does not stabilize in this area it could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $243.60 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of $155.80 and this year's current high of $385.70). Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $361.70 (as measured between the contract high of $398.00 and the April spike low of $303.00) in confluence with the daily April high of $363.40 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the contract high of $398.00 (all-sessions). A breakout to new all-time highs could put meal on a path toward the psychological $450 area. Open Interest is at the lowest level since August. Seasonally, soy meal should rally in May. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since last summer. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since then as well.

Bean Oil finds near term support between last week's low of 55.83 (all-sessions) and the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 54.82 (as measured between daily April low of 49.27 and the daily April high of 63.79). A break below this level could take the market down to visit the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 49.52 (as measured between the 2001 low of 14.35 and the all-time monthly high of 71.26) in confluence with the daily April low of 49.27 (all-sessions). Further support is the 1984 high of 41.15 (old resistance). Near term resistance is at the daily April high of 63.79 (all-sessions) in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 64.13 (as measured between the contract high of 73.32 and the daily April low of 49.27). Further resistance is at the contract high of 73.32 (all-sessions). A breakout to new all-time highs could send bean oil up to the psychological 80 cent mark. Open Interest is at the lowest level since August. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since October of 2006. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since August.

Corn finds near term resistance at the current contract high of $6.28 – (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the psychological seven-dollar level. After that corn could even challenge the psychological eight-dollar mark. Near term support is at the monthly April low of $5.61 – (corn has made higher monthly lows for nine consecutive months). Further support is at the daily March low of $5.15 (all-sessions). If July corn takes this low out it could easily make it's way down to this year's current monthly low of $4.56 (all-sessions) in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $4.51 – (as measured between the 2005 low of $1.85 – and the current all-time weekly high of $6.16). Open Interest is close to a record high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is still overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that corn should move sideways in May. Commercial interests are still holding a sizable net short position. Large traders are holding a very large net long position. Small traders are holding the same size small net short position that they have had for months.

Oats find near term resistance at last week's high of $4.25. Further resistance is at the current contract high of $4.60 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs would allow oats to challenge the psychological five-dollar level. Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.75 – (as measured between the daily March low of $3.45 and last week's high of $4.25). Further support is at the April low of $3.63 – (July oats have only broken a previous month's low once in the last nine months). If last month's low is broken oats could decline to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $3.06 – (as measured between the 2000 low of 93 – cents and the current all-time monthly high of $4.38), the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $3.01 (oats have only closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average once since September), the monthly March 2007 high of $3.02 (old resistance), or the 1996 high of $2.96 (old resistance). If oats fail to establish support around three dollars they could decline to the March 2002 high of $2.48 (old resistance) in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.42 (as measured between the 2004 low of $1.20 1/2 and this year's current weekly high of $4.38 1/2). Open Interest is at a ten month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that oats are overbought on the daily chart. Oats have a seasonal tendency to move higher in the first half of May and then decline sharply in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since August. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since January. Small traders are still holding the same size net long position that they have had for several weeks.

Wheat finds near term support at last week's low of $7.76 – (all-sessions) followed by the 1996 spike high of $7.50 (old resistance). Further support is at the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.47 – (as measured between the 1999 low of $2.22 – and the current all-time monthly high of $13.34). Further support is at the psychological six-dollar area. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $8.46 (wheat has made lower weekly highs for seven consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late March). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $9.66 (as measured between the contract high of $12.72 – and last week's low of $7.76). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $10.83 (as measured between the contract high of $12.72 – and last week's low of $7.76). Open Interest is at a one year low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should move sideways in the first half of May and then drop in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding a net long wheat position for the first time since February. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since late January. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position in years.

Softs - Coffee finds near term support between last week's low of 128.80 and the daily March low of 128.40. If these lows are broken coffee would quickly find more technical support between the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 126.80 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 100.35 and this year's multi-year high of 169.60) and the weekly March low of 125.85. Further support is at the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 120.65 (as measured between the 2001 low of 41.50 and this year's multi-year high of 169.60). If the market does not stabilize here it could plunge to the psychological one-dollar area. Near term resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 142.55 (as measured between this year's multi-year high of 169.60 and this year's current weekly low of 125.85) in confluence with the daily April high of 142.85. Further resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 152.90 (as measured between this year's multi-year high of 169.60 and this year's current weekly low of 125.85). Open Interest is at a one year low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that coffee is nearing oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, coffee should rally and establish a major seasonal high at the end of May. Commercials are holding the smallest net short coffee position since September. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding a modest size net long position.

Cocoa finds near term resistance at the daily April high of $2,824 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the multi-decade contract high of $2,983 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs would put cocoa back into uncharted territory where the sky is the limit! Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2,470 (as measured between the daily April low of $2,251 and the daily April high of $2,824). Further support is at the daily April low of $2,251 (all-sessions). A break below last month's low could pull cocoa down to the weekly July high of $2,143 (old resistance). If cocoa breaches this support level it could test the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,948 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of $1,315 and this year's current multi-decade high of $2,971). Open Interest is at the lowest level since December. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to move lower in the first half of May and then stage a small rally in the latter part of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since October. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral on cocoa.

Sugar finds near term support at last week's low of 11.12. Further support is at the weekly April low of 10.10. If sugar sinks below ten cents, it may not find technical support again until last year's weekly low of 8.36. Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 12.68 (as measured between the contract high of 15.21 and last week's low of 11.12). Further resistance is at the daily April high of 13.59 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 13.65 (as measured between the contract high of 15.21 and last week's low of 11.12). If sugar can clear this resistance barrier it could rally to the contract high of 15.21 followed by the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 15.39 (as measured between the 2006 weekly high of 19.73 and the 2007 weekly low of 8.36). Open Interest has been flat for months. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should move slightly higher in May. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since mid-December. Large traders (hedge funds) holding the same size net long position that they have had for weeks. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since December.

Orange Juice finds near term resistance at the daily April high of 125.95 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 126.15 (as measured between the December high of 153.00 and the current contract low of 109.50). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 136.40 (as measured between the December high of 153.00 and the current contract low of 109.50) followed closely by the daily March reaction high of 138.00. Further resistance is at this year's current monthly high of 150.00. Near term support is at last week's low of 117.30 (July OJ has only broken a previous week's low once in the last five weeks). Further support is at the contract low of 109.50. After that the market could hit the 2002 spike high of 106.00 (old resistance) in confluence with the weekly March low of 105.25. Further support is at the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 87.40 (as measured between the 2004 multi-decade low of 54.20 and the 2006 multi-decade high of 209.40). Open Interest is at a one month low. Seasonally, OJ should trade in a choppy range in May. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in three months. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since February. Small traders are holding a modest size net long position.

Cotton finds near term support at last week's low of 68.52. Further support is at the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 61.25 (cotton has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average the last year), the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 60.86 (as measured between the 2004 weekly low of 42 cents and this year's current weekly high of 91.38), and the 2005 spike high of 60.50 (old resistance). If cotton does not establish support somewhere in this area it may be doomed to hit the 50-cent mark. Near term resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 78.45 (as measured between the contract high of 94.52 and last week's low of 68.52). Further resistance is at the April spike high of 82.23. After that July cotton may challenge the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.59 (as measured between the contract high of 94.52 and last week's low of 68.52). Open Interest is at a four month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cotton is oversold on the daily chart. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to rally in the first part of May and decline sharply in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since mid-December. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net short position since then. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since then.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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