TALKING
TURKEY
The Well-Timed Strategy for Week Ending Nov 23
by Peter Navarro, Ph.D.
November 18, 2007
Navarro's Big Economic Picture
As I foreshadowed last week, the retail sales report might well be very revealing. It was. While retail sales were up slightly, the increase was due to higher expenditures on gasoline. In other words, we are not buying more stuff but merely paying more for our oil based products.
More broadly, this is shaping up to be the worst holiday season in years. Consumers are caught in the vice of rising gas prices and falling home equity as home prices sank back to 2005 levels.
I'm sure some talking heads on the tube will be able to tease out of a declining dollar, rising oil prices, and a flagging consumer some bullish buying opportunity. I ain't going to be one of them. Risk reward continues to favor the short side. For the risk-averse, cash is king.
This Week's Big Market Movers
This is a dismal week for economic news. Indeed, there is almost nothing of interest on the macroeconomic calendar. That leaves �Black Friday�, the day after Turkey Day, as the only thing likely to be of interest this week. Let's see if American shoppers storm into the malls in force.
Have a great holiday yourself!
The International Scene - Technical Take
With the exception of Brazil, all of the ETFs tracked in this column are showing significant signs of technical deterioration. In addition, both Mexico and the Standard & Poor's 500 have flipped over fairly dramatically to the short side. This is not a tide that you really want to buck.
|
Country or Region |
ETF |
|
|
U.S. |
SPY |
Short |
|
Europe |
EZU |
Long |
|
Europe S&P Eur 350 |
IEV |
Long |
|
- Germany |
EWG |
Long |
|
Emerging Markets* |
EEM |
Long |
|
Asia 50 ADR |
ADRA |
Long |
|
- China 25 |
FXI |
Long |
|
- Japan |
EWJ |
Neutral |
|
- Australia |
EWA |
Long |
|
- Korea |
EWY |
Long |
|
- India |
IFN |
Long |
|
Latin America |
ILF |
Long |
|
- Brazil |
EWZ |
Long |
|
- Mexico |
EWW |
Short |
|
Gold |
GLD |
Long |
*Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Jordan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey.
The Market Edge Market Summary from www.marketedge.com
© 2007 Peter Navarro
“Any trader or investor who ignores the power of macroeconomics over the world’s financial markets will, sooner or later, lose more than they should and if they are trading on margin, perhaps more than they have.”-- If It’s Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks
Peter Navarro is a business professor at the University of California and the author of the best-selling investment book If It's Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks and The Well-Timed Strategy. His latest book is The Coming China Wars: Where They Will Be Fought, How They Can Be Won.
Contact Information
Peter Navarro Irvine, California USA | Email | Website | Editorial Archive
