International Trade Report 2004 Update
by Michael W. Hodges, Author, Grandfather Economic Report. February 14, 2004

This is an update on a prior mini-report from June 2003 on Financial Sense. Please review the complete report mini-report for a thorough explanation. Below are two charts which have been updated based on new government statistics.

This chart shows year 2003 trade performance in goods was a $549 billion trade deficit - - the largest negative trade balance in history, despite a slow economy and a rapidly falling dollar exchange rate.

Look at this chart again. Dangerous trend. How can this record deficit continue in light of a falling exchange rate? The answer is an easy one > America's private and government sectors are increasing debts at a faster rate, much faster than incomes, causing more consumption and imports than could be supported by incomes and neglible savings. In a nut-shell > America is living beyond its means - - way, way beyond!

In the 12-months ending January 2003, the U.S. had a goods trade deficit of $496 billion, while Japan & Germany scored a cumulative trade surplus of $214 billion. That's a whopping $710 billion difference.

See Grandfather Economic Reports
Grandfather Foreign Trade & Debt Report
International Trade - Negative Trends Exploding!

This chart shows the USA cumulative merchandise trade deficit - - with all nations since 1985. (cumulative means adding all deficits)

The cumulative merchandise goods trade deficit was $4.3 Trillion during the last 18 years (since 1985). That means each American man, woman and child effectively borrowed $14,800 from producers in other nations, because we Americans consumed more goods from other nations than we produced and sold abroad. As a result, foreigners now own $4.3 trillion more in US assets than before.

Not shown on the chart is the cumulative goods trade deficit since 1976 - - totaling $4.7 trillion. Prior to that period America produced near continuing surpluses with the rest of the world allowing America to own more assets in foreign nations than they in ours. However, that net has eroded over recent years to a net negative.

See Grandfather Economic Reports
Grandfather Foreign Trade & Debt Report
USA Cumulative Trade Deficit

This updated report is based on a chapter of the Grandfather Economic Reports series of certain negative economic conditions facing families and their children, compared to prior generations. The full report, Foreign Trade and International Debt Report is an eye-opener.

© 2004 Michael W. Hodges
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