GOLD DEMAND IS GROWING,
AND SUPPLY IS NOT
by Monty Guild and Tony Danaher
Guild Investment Management, Inc.
April 25, 2007

GLOBAL GROWTH AND GLOBAL ACCUMULATION OF WEALTH MEANS GREATER DEMAND FOR GOLD

With increasing wealth in Asia and the Mid East, these regions are increasing their demand for gold. Gold is a traditional means of hoarding wealth, and represents a way to buy economic security in much of Asia and the Mid East. These parts of the world are growing rapidly. In our opinion, their demand for gold is growing just as rapidly.

SUPPLY OF GOLD IS LIMITED

Not many major discoveries are being made, and the cost of exploration and mining are rising. Thus new supply is limited. Russia, a major gold mining country, is holding back a larger percentage of their production to hold as reserves; further limiting supply. Finally, many of South Africa�s mines have experienced production declines in recent years.

In our opinion, these factors argue for a continuation and acceleration of the rise in the gold price.

RUSSIA....GOLD AND OIL

What Russia is doing is of vital importance to the world. Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has moved to a more centralized state ownership, with the political elite, the former KGB elite, and the bureaucratic elite taking control jointly of a number of key industries. They have not hesitated to push Royal Dutch Shell out of their oil holdings in Sakhalin Island, and they have taken back a lot of energy and metals holdings from the oligarchs who did not give them back. These assets, along with precious and strategic metals, and weapons manufacturing have been consolidated under government control.

Russia, over the next few years will continue to consolidate power in the hands of the same elites with the military also gaining power. A centralized state is once again being formed. This state will allow more private enterprise than the communists, but less that was the case five years ago. One thing is for sure. T hey will use their resources as a lever to achieve the goals of increased political and economic influence in the world.

SEighty percent of Russians like Putin, and favor what he has done. They will be happy to accept his appointed successor, even if they do not know who it is in advance.

© 2007 Monty Guild & Tony Danaher

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