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Campaigns by the Federal Reserve
to Raise Interest Rates
by Ron Griess
Proprietor, The
Chart Store
www.thechartstore.com
February 14, 2006
Originally
published on February 8, 2006 as a Special Edition of
The Chart Store Weekly Blog
We have assembled 16 charts showing four prior periods when the Federal Reserve has had a campaign of raising interest rates. Each period starts with a chart of the Target Rate and maturities of 3 months, 6 months and 1 year; the second chart shows the Target Rate and maturities of 2 years, 3 years and 5 years; the third chart shows the Target Rate and maturities of 7 years, 10 years and either the 20 year or 30 year; and the fourth chart shows the Target Rate and all the maturities. Each chart also includes a brief statistical summary.
CHART
1: 1988
CHART
2: 1988
CHART
3: 1988
CHART
4: 1988
CHART
5: 1994
CHART
6: 1994
CHART
7: 1994
CHART
8: 1994
CHART
9: 1999
CHART
10: 1999
CHART
11: 1999
CHART
12: 1999
CHART
13: 2004
CHART
14: 2004
CHART
15: 2004
CHART
16: 2004
SOME GENERAL OBSERVATIONS:
- The impact of Fed actions shows up most noticeably in the shortest maturities.
- The Fed also seems to follow the market as witnessed by the shortest maturities peaking and starting down after the last increase and before the first decrease (Charts 1, 5 and 9).
- Longer maturities generally rise less than shorter maturities and are near or below their respective levels from the start of the campaign (Charts 3, 7 and 11).
- During the current cycle, neither the 10 year nor the 20 year have been above their level from the start of the campaign.
© 2006 Ron Griess
Editorial Archive
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