REPORT: IRAQ PULLOUT
ALREADY DRAFTED
by Joe Duarte, M.D.
Joe-Duarte.com & IntelligentForecasts.com
July 11, 2007

Decision Time

One Republican strategist is telling President Bush to stay the course in Iraq, and not to look for an exit compromise in Iraq. But one external source with a knack for sensational revelations says that the pullout from Iraq is all but a done deal.

But before we get to the meat of this story, it's important to get on the same page.

A great deal of activity is under way with regard to the U.S. role in the war in Iraq. The situation in the country is deteriorating, as sectarian violence, combined with the presence of international militants threatens to plunge the country into disorder.

And making matters worse, there have been reports of 140,000 Turkish troops having been amassed on Iraq's northern border, aiming to attack a Kurdish rebel group that has threatened the Turkish government.

So what's going on? Let's get up to date.

The New York Times, over the weekend, reported that an intense battle over the U.S. and its future in Iraq was ongoing at the White House. The White House denied the reports on Monday.

Republican strategist Bill Krystol, wrote an op-ed piece in response to the Times article on Monday, encouraging the White House to stay the course, and not to back down or make any deals now.

Several key Republicans have withdrawn their support for the war.

And the Iraqi government is warning that a civil war will ensue if the U.S. pulls out.

Ready Since April

The White House says it's not making any changes to its Iraq strategy. But Debka.com reports that a U.S. plan for a withdrawal from Iraq has been on President Bush's desk since April 2007.

According to Debka: "built around the phased pull-back by early 2008 of a little more than half of the 170,000 or so troops there at present. Around 50-70,000 soldiers are to be redeployed to large strategic fortified enclaves in the south and the north as a semi-permanent US presence. They will be backed by four naval and aerial strike groups in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea and a chain of giant air bases, some expanded, others built from scratch, in Oman, Qatar and Jordan."

In fact, Debka adds that the plan is so well known in the inner circles of several key U.S. ally governments in the Middle East, that the only question left is when the U.S. will pull the trigger, and what Iran and Syria will do in response.

Debka gives further details, noting that the strategy will start to revolve around taking the battles out of the cities and into open spaces, and that the U.K.'s strategy in southern Iraq, has been used as a model. British troops have "shut themselves away in a well-fortified compound south of the oil city. It is blasted daily by mortars and other heavy weapons. From time to time, British commando patrols emerge to hit enemy assault concentrations."

More interesting are these details from Debka, citing U.S. sources:

"1. Whether to launch a military operation to destroy Iran�s nuclear facilities and cripple its strategic-economic infrastructure.

"2. How to respond if Iran decides on a pre-emptive attack on US Middle East interests by fomenting local assaults against Israel by Syria, Hizballah and Hamas and a civil war in Lebanon. Some Middle East military and intelligence sources say this decision is already in the bag in Tehran. Will President Bush seek to avert these flare-ups of violence? Or use them as the starting shot for his military strike against Iran?"

"3. The timeline for beginning the US military pullout from Iraq, the third decision in abeyance, hinges heavily on the White House�s actions regarding the first two."

"4. The optional exit dates for now are September 2000 or January-March 2008. The latter is seen as the more realistic by American commanders and soldiers serving in Iraq."

A Region Under Tension

According to Debka, Iran is so certain that a U.S. attack is coming that it has begun to ration gasoline, while Syria is telling its citizens to leave Lebanon.

Meanwhile "Israel, Syria and Hizballah have prepared their armies for a war contingency entailing a possible clash on Golan and the Lebanese-Israeli frontier regions."

Conclusion

It is clear that the situation in the Middle East is coming to a boil, as Iran, Syria, the U.S. and Israel have run out of room to maneuver.

The presence of Al-Qaeda in the region has clearly complicated matters to a point where all sides are now ready to defend their own territories from real or perceived threats.

What is most interesting, and perhaps predictable, is the lack of analysis of the situation by the U.S. mainstream media, where the sensational is still the headline, rather than substance.

Nothing may come of what Debka is reporting. But it is believable. And it is should be frightening.

Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the story, is the conclusion: "Two months ago, military high commands in the Middle East stopped asking when the American army would leave Iraq. They took for granted that a major pull-back is in the works and not far away. The question exercising most minds these days is which of the two leading antagonists in the current regional contest will be first to assemble all the pieces of the war puzzle and gain the advantage over his rival, the Bush administration in Washington or Ali Khamenei�s mullahs in Tehran?"

© 2007 Joe Duarte, M.D.
Dr. Duarte's Bio and Archive

Joe Duarte, M.D.

Joe Duarte M.D. is founder and Editor in Chief of Joe-Duarte.com. Dr. Joe Duarte's Daily Market I.Q. is a premium service that provides daily intelligence, trading strategies, and technical analysis at www.joe-duarte.com. Duarte offers free analysis and news coverage at www.intelligentforecasts.com . Dr. Duarte is a board certified anesthesiologist, a registered investment advisor, and President of River Willow Capital Management. He is author of "Successful Energy Sector Investing" and "Successful Biotech Investing" (Prima/Random House). Duarte's analysis appears regularly in major outlets including CBS MarketWatch and Investor's Business Daily.