MEDITERRANEAN ARMADA AIMED AT IRAN?
by Joe Duarte, MD
Joe-Duarte.com & IntelligentForecasts.com
September 8, 2006

Editor�s note: Although the war in Lebanon has ended, a new more covert war, involving cloak and dagger operations and diplomacy seems to be underway, with Iran, the U.S., and the European Union, as well as China and Russia all working feverishly to achieve their own set of goals.

In this analysis, Dr. Duarte explores a little covered piece of intelligence that could have major consequences over the next few weeks.

For more background on Iran�s political and covert strategies visit: March 11, February 18

Maneuvers Aimed At Iran

There is a huge buildup of European war ships in the Mediterranean. And one source suggests that it could be an arms buildup aimed at Iran and Syria.

According to the usually flamboyant Debka.com: "The extraordinary buildup of European naval and military strength in and around Lebanon�s shores is way out of proportion for the task the European contingents of expanded UNIFIL have undertaken: to create a buffer between Israel and Hizballah."

Citing the usual anonymous sources Debka, who is often out on a limb, but does deliver occassional blockbuster information noted: '�Lebanese security� and peacemaking is not the object of the exercise. It is linked to the general anticipation of a military clash between the United States and Israel, on one side, and Iran and possibly Syria on the other, some time from now until November.'

More interesting is the notion that "This expectation has brought together the greatest sea and air armada Europe has ever assembled at any point on earth since World War II: two carriers with 75 fighter-bombers, spy planes and helicopters on their decks; 15 warships of various types � 7 French, 5 Italian, 2-3 Green, 3-5 German, and five American; thousands of Marines � French, Italian and German, as well as 1,800 US Marines."

More Than Needed

Debka notes that an unnamed Western military analyst noted the following: "the European naval forces cruising off Lebanese shores are roughly ten times as much as the UNIFIL contingents require as cover, especially when UNIFIL�s duties are strictly non-combat. After all, none of the UN contingents will be engaged in disarming Hizballah or blocking the flow of weapons incoming from Syria and Iran."

The intelligence service then asks why there would be such a large naval force in the area, while offering a two part response.

"First, according to our military sources, the European participants feel the need of a strong naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean to prevent a possible Iranian-US-Israeli war igniting an Iranian long-range Shahab missile attack on Europe; second, as a deterrent to dissuade Syria and Hizballah from opening a second front against American and Israel from their eastern Mediterranean coasts."

Debka offers a vast inventory of hardware and specialized ships in the area, including France's Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier and the USS Mount Whitney, noting that the Mount Whitney has the most sophisticated communications network available which is capable of "the secure transmission of data from any point to any other point in the world through HF, UHF,VHF, SHF and EHF."

More interesting is the fact that "The new European naval concentration tops up the forces which permanently crowd the eastern Mediterranean: the Italian-based American Sixth Fleet, some 15 small Israeli missile ships and half a dozen submarines and the NATO fleet of Canadian, British, Dutch, German, Spanish, Greek and Turkish warships. They are on patrol against al Qaeda (which is estimated to deploy 45 small freighters in the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean). The British have permanent air and sea bases in Cyprus."

Debka adds an interesting note in addition to the catalog, by suggesting that even though there is a major force in the area, it lacks a unified command, a fact that could aid Iran and Syria if there is a confrontation.

Conclusion

Debka's analysis, after it is stripped of the usual tabloid like headlines is an interesting piece of intelligence.

First, it once again highlights the lack of media coverage of important information which currently lacks headline power.

Key pieces of data include the fact that not only is the usual contingent of U.S. Navy in the Mediterranean, but now there is a beefed up European force.

What is most difficult to ascertain, is whether Debka's analysis is correct.

Is that European presence there to aid or to hinder any U.S.-Israeli maneuvers against Iran? Or is it there for its own purposes?

If it is indeed there to protect its own interests, then the potential for a three sided conflict is in the air, complicating matters further.

A look at other developments along this same timeline suggests that all sides are starting to ponder the possibility of at least some face to face negotiations, although little has emerged publicly along these lines.

Yet, former Iranian President Khatami is on a two week tour of the U.S., although no reports of official meetings have appeared.

As with anything between Iran and the U.S., it seems that back room negotiations are ongoing, while at the same time both sides continue to fortify their offensive and defensive capabilities.

In this context, it seems as if Europe is doing the only thing that it can do, to be close to the action in order to gather real time information in order to make key decisions when the time comes.

The financial markets have been uneasy over the last few days, presumably from inflation fears. Yet, it seems logical to consider the fact that somewhere, somebody with some money might have gotten some good information about this interesting Mediterranean armada.

© 2006 Joe Duarte, M.D.
Dr. Duarte's Bio and Archive

Joe Duarte, M.D.

Joe Duarte M.D. is founder and Editor in Chief of Joe-Duarte.com. Dr. Joe Duarte's Daily Market I.Q. is a premium service that provides daily intelligence, trading strategies, and technical analysis at www.joe-duarte.com. Duarte offers free analysis and news coverage at www.intelligentforecasts.com . Dr. Duarte is a board certified anesthesiologist, a registered investment advisor, and President of River Willow Capital Management. He is author of "Successful Energy Sector Investing" and "Successful Biotech Investing" (Prima/Random House). Duarte's analysis appears regularly in major outlets including CBS MarketWatch and Investor's Business Daily.