Consumer and Investor Confidence Polls are Forming Very Bearish Patterns
by Bob Bronson, Bronson Capital Markets Research. April 1, 2005
The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index (below) has been leading the bull-trapped stock market by continuing to roll over, which is bearish for the stock market and ultimately for the domestic and global economy:
This is consistent with our expectation for the coming second recession, and probably the most severe of three, if not four, recessions during this K-Cycle Winter, or what we both fundamentally and technically quantify as a deflationary economic BAAC Supercycle Bear Market Period:
Globally Synchronized Recession Coming
Latest Update of our SMECT Forecasting Model
Globally Synchronized Recession Coming
Latest Update of our SMECT Forecasting Model
And the following longer-term charts illustrate how consumer confidence and investor optimism have been bearishly reinforcing each other and confirming that the post-election, crude oil-topping, year-end stock market rally was a classic bull trap -- as we have been expecting:
Major Stock Market Top Further Confirmed by Latest NAHB Housing Market Index Data
The False New-High Breakout and Bull Trap is Confirmed...
Latest Economic Indicator Data Confirms Our Calls and Expectations
Predictably, Holiday Season Sales Reports Are Very Disappointing
© 2005 Bob Bronson
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Bronson Capital Markets Research
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