Peaking Consumer Confidence is Consistent with the Coming Second Downleg in the Supercycle Bear Market

by Bob Bronson, Bronson Capital Markets Research. March 23, 2005

Our sentiment factor group -- one of the eight factor groups in our forecasting model: monetary-economic, socio-political, valuation-sentiment and inter- and intra-market technical -- includes several dozen sentiment indicators.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index is one of the best stand-alone weekly sentiment indicators because it often even slightly leads the stock market.

As expected, it peaked at the same time as the stock market did with negative divergence when we made that call in early March.

See the updated short term chart below -- also the attached .gif file chart -- and the longer term chart with our Supercycle bearish expectations annotated further below.

From: Bob Bronson [mailto:Bob @ Bronsons.com]
Sent: Tuesday, March 08, 2005 5:06 PM
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Subject: Peaking consumer confidence is consistent with the coming second downleg in the Supercycle Bear Market

© 2005 Bob Bronson
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