Predictable Peaks in Retail Sales Confirmed
by Bob Bronson, Bronson Capital Markets Research. February 15, 2005
The previous predictable peaks in retail sales growth are further confirmed with the January data reported today, notwithstanding the bullish spin from the financial media and talking heads.
All of this is consistent with the current major stock market high and our expectation for a coming second, more severe recession during the five-year ongoing K-Cycle Winter, or what we quantify both fundamentally and technically as a deflationary economic BAAC Supercycle Bear Market Period.
Shorter term, the stock market is hoping Greenspan's testimony over the next two days will include something to propel the stock market much higher than its yearend highs in the post-election "bull trap" rally. We doubt that, especially since our forecasting model will produce another sell signal with this week's high.
© 2005 Bob Bronson
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