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OIL: Weekly resistance at $68.75 and $72; support at $62.25 and $59.5. If support at $62.25 holds, and it reverses to the upside, within 6 weeks it will reach $78.
The Thrust Oscillators are at the bottom of their range and they have turned up, which means NASDAQ and the SP can move modestly higher for the first part of the week.
SUMMARY February 3 we said, "Last week we presented you with 2 possible scenarios for the next 5-10 trading days. In comparing the actual price action to the one forecasted by our probability models, it certainly looks that scenario #1 is unfolding. However, we want to caution that it would take a daily close below 2240 by NASDAQ, and a daily close below 1258 by the SP500 for confirmation. Unless, we get confirmation, scenario #2 is still alive. This week, all major indices were able to stay above support, while most of the indicators stabilized around their respective zero lines, and some have even turned up. Under these circumstances the odds are usually better than even in favor of a modest advance lasting between 1-3 days, followed by another decline back down to support. Therefore, for this week we will be looking for signs of modest strength early on to give way to weakness by the end of the week. Also please see Market Timing.
Ike Iossif
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