Jeffrey G. Rubin
Chief Economist, Chief Strategist and Managing Director, CIBC World Markets
FSN Energy Roundtable, February 2, 2008
While most economists have bought into the notion that higher oil prices would bring forth huge increases in supply, Mr. Rubin was one of the first economists to recognize the growing depletion of conventional fields and the implications that would have for total global oil supply. Incorporating much of the depletion work done by the Association of Peak Oil (ASPO), Mr. Rubin has proven to be one of the most accurate predictors of world oil prices. In 2000, shortly after world oil prices had fallen to US$20 per barrel, Mr. Rubin predicted they would rebound rapidly and hit US$50 per barrel by 2005. In 2005, after West Texas Intermediate hit his US$50 target, Mr. Rubin predicted it would reach US$100 per barrel by the end of 2007. Mr. Rubin has recently forecast that oil prices will continue to rise to US$150 per barrel over the next five years.
Mr. Rubin's recent work on soaring rates of oil consumption in oil producing countries has been noted globally, from the Financial Times of London and the front page of the New York Times to the Middle East and Bloomberg magazine. Mr. Rubin was the first economist to note that the paradox of soaring world crude demand growth and rising oil prices could be best explained by the growing importance of oil consumption in oil-producing countries themselves. In those markets, where oil is massively subsidized, higher oil prices perversely lead to higher consumption. Last year, crude consumption in OPEC, together with independent producers Russia and Mexico, reached nearly 13 million barrels per day, almost twice the level of China�s consumption.
Mr. Rubin has been the chief economist at CIBC World Markets since 1992. Over the last decade he has been the top ranked economist in Canadian financial markets, obtaining a number one ranking in either the Brendan Woods survey of institutional equity or institutional fixed income investors on no less than ten separate occasions. In 2003, he took over responsibility for equity strategy as well, being appointed the firm�s Chief Strategist in addition to his role as the Chief Economist. Since becoming chief strategist, his model stock portfolio has consistently outperformed the TSX composite over the last four years. Mr. Rubin lives in Toronto with his wife Deborah and their two children Jack and Margot.
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