Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons From Wall Street's Four Great Bottoms
Russell Napier
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April 15, 2006
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This is a good time to look at the financial bear. How does one spot the
bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end? There are few
more important questions to be answered in modern finance.
Financial market history is a guide to understanding the future. Looking at the four occasions when US equities were particularly cheap - 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982, Russell Napier sets to answer these questions by analyzing every article in the Wall Street Journal of either side of the market bottom. In these 70,000 articles he examines, one begins to understand the features which indicate that a great buying opportunity is emerging.
By looking at how markets really did work in these bear-market bottoms, rather than theorizing how they should work, Napier offers investors a financial field guide to making the best financial provisions for the future.
Russell Napier is a consultant with CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets writing on issues affecting global equity markets. After studying law, he began his investment career sixteen years ago at Baillie Gifford in Edinburgh managing funds in the Japanese then the US and finally the Asian markets. Moving to Foreign & Colonial Emerging Markets in London he was responsible for managing Asian portfolios. In May 1995, Russell relocated to Hong Kong to become Asian equity strategist for CLSA, a leading Asian equity brokerage. He occupied that position in a full time capacity until 1999 and was ranked number one for Asian strategy in all major industry polls including Institutional Investor from 1997-1999.
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