Wood on Goldbugs & the 5 Bears
Tim W. Wood, CPA
Editor, Cycles News & Views and FSN Roundtable Participant
November 1, 2003
Tim's primary focus is on the stock market, specifically the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, the Gold market, the Dollar and T-Bonds. The information presented in his website, www.cyclesman.com, is based on technical analysis and not on the Hope and Hype heard by the so-called mainstream "analysts.
Tim's technical studies are based on his knowledge of both Market Cycles and Dow Theory. His knowledge of cycles is based on the methods he learned from Walter Bressert. His knowledge of Dow Theory has come from studies of the original works of Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton, Robert Rhea, E. George Schaefer, and Richard Russell. If you are familiar with these names you should realize that he believes in the old traditional methods of market analysis. Tim feels that these are the best tools available to market students today. Yet, he finds that these tools are overlooked and/or forgotten today when they are most needed.
In June of 2001 Tim did a long-term study of the Dow going back to 1896. This study was an analysis of the 4-year cycle. As a result of this study, Tim found that based on the historical characteristics of the 4-year cycle the stage was set for a major move down in the stock market. At this time he knew he had truly discovered a powerful combination that no one else is using. Tim's cycles work confirmed the Bearish signal given by Dow Theory. He then sent this study to Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine and it was published in the November 2001 issue. An extremely short summary of this research suggested that the current 4-year cycle would move down below the 1998 4-year cycle low close at 7,615 on the Dow and 969 on the S&P 500. This has already happened on the S&P and Tim feels the Dow will soon follow. In short, Tim called for the 2002 decline over a year in advance using his Cyclical methods combined with Dow Theory.
Next, Tim applied his Cycles theories to the Dollar, Gold and Bonds. This was an attempt to use inter-market analysis to further confirm the economic outlook. His theory was that if the stock market was to be going down these other segments of the economy should confirm this from a cyclical perspective. He found that the Dollar was topping out and should start to decline into it's 4-year cycle low. He found that Gold was forming a major bottom, potentially the 9-year cycle bottom, and was to be moving up. Thus far the Cyclical outlook for the Dow was confirmed by the cyclical outlook of the Dollar. The Cyclical outlook of the Dollar was confirmed by that of Gold. Bonds are now setting up for a move into their 3-year cycle low. Tim thinks Bonds are also confirming the other Cyclical setups. This research was published by Traders World Spring 2002. See http://www.tradersworld.com/
Market Analysis without the Wall Street Hope and Hype